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This condition is known as foresee-ability. People show greater hindsight bias when they find it easy to conclude a specific outcome. These inputs are more based on subjective judgement. For instance, you can remember the name of your childhood best friend but you do not know the capital of a particular state. Meta-cognitive inputs: These are the thoughts of your thoughts. On the contrary, non-relatable information remains inactive. The new information being given to the mind activates the memory system and strengthens the compatible information with it. Therefore, the new information gets integrated into the existing information. The human mind creates a sense of relatability in both the information. In the case of knowledge updating, new information is more likely to get connected with older information. In more complex events, people get confused between the bits of sources of information. For example, most of the times, people fail to provide answers to a question later which they copied and when this happens, they rely more on the pre-known knowledge. In recollection, people tend to retrieve previous, pre-event predictions. These are recollection, knowledge updating and sense-making. There are three models for cognitive inputs. In addition to that, it involves one’s own prowess towards the understanding of the world.Ĭognitive inputs: It refers to the ability of a person to easily change the foundation of knowledge and belief for events when they receive new information. The foreseeability level is placed on top of inevitability level which indicates that it subsumes the beliefs about the objective status of the world. This captures the feeling of “I knew it all along.”It can be measured by self-report ratings. It is based on the fact that one has personally foreseen the actual event that is happening. It incorporates the beliefs about the causes that help in making certain outcomes seem easily predictable than other outcomes.įoreseeability/Predictability: It involves subjective beliefs to your knowledge. The inevitability level is placed above the level of memory distortion which means that inevitability subsumes memory distortion. Inevitability is a higher-order sense making concept.
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People make judgement based on the predetermination of their past events. Inevitability: It involves the beliefs of an objective state rather than the subjective state. There is mis-recollection of one’s previous judgement based on the new judgement. For example in the case of eyewitness testimony. In actual sense, when new information is received, it might influence the alteration of already existing information. Memory distortion: It can occur after witnessing any event. So it is often seen that the hindsight bias tend to occur in those situations that possibly have a negative outcome. People generally pay more attention to negative outcomes than positive ones. In 1975, “Creeping determinism hypothesis was given by Fischhoff to investigate more about hindsight bias. Some heuristic studies were also an important part of hindsight studies. This statement gave an opportunity in Baruch to carry out psychological research and provide some explanation for these observations. A Psychologist named Baruch Fischhoff in 1973 attended a seminar where a speaker stated observation that clinicians most often overestimate their ability to have foreseen the outcome of a particular case that they are a part of and claim that they have known it all along. It can be a significant source of overconfidence.
![example of hindsight bias example of hindsight bias](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/yisPm0y_cWI/maxresdefault.jpg)
For example, during elections, the voters try to predict the percentage of winning a particular representing the party. People tend to believe an event being predictable even before it has occurred.